Judith Ruiz-Branch, producer/reporter, Illinois News Connection, a bureau of Public News Service.
As nationwide deportation efforts continue, new research examined the labor market of a past president to help forecast what could happen if President Donald Trump follows through on his plans.
The Obama administration deported more than 3 million people. Trump says he wants to deport more to increase jobs for U.S. citizens. A new report from the University of Colorado finds U.S. presidents have a long history of blaming immigration for the country’s economic troubles, even when research shows the opposite.
Deportation impact on US jobs
Chloe East, associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado in Denver, said mass deportations and raids incite fear and leave vacant jobs U.S. citizens are unlikely to fill.
“We really don’t see this substitution between unauthorized immigrants and U.S.-born workers in the way that we’re promised we will by politicians,” East reported. “In fact, the effect sort of goes even beyond this lack of substitution.”
She noted the industries most likely to be affected are construction, agriculture, manufacturing, and service jobs, with positions tending to be lower paid, tougher, or more dangerous. East argued keeping such jobs filled actually helps to increase U.S. labor opportunities. About 17% of Illinois workers are immigrants, including 55,000 seasonal farmworkers.
Inconsistencies about who exactly is being targeted by ICE agents raises concerns about racial profiling. A leaked memo shows efforts have pivoted from focusing on people committing crimes to migrant families and unaccompanied children with no criminal histories. Migrant workers make up about 20% of the U.S. workforce. East observed it is striking to see history repeating itself.
“Whether we’re looking a few decades back or a hundred years back, the results are very consistent and very clear that mass deportations are not the solution to any economic troubles,” East explained.
While deportation data since Trump took office has yet to be released, the majority of news releases on the ICE website involve people from Mexico or Latin America. ICE said it will release updated deportation data every quarter.
