USA/Midterm elections—
By Judith Ruiz-Branch, producer, Illinois News Connection, bureau of Public News Service.
Nearly a week after the midterm elections, political analysts are still weighing what the results could mean for the future of American politics.
National polling showed younger voters and other key groups swung back toward Democrats, while historic election victories and a surge of younger candidates point to a changing face of political leadership.
E.J. Fagan, associate professor of political science at the University of Illinois-Chicago, said they are all signs political scientists look for when studying major shifts across the electoral spectrum.
“This has all the hallmarks of an election that we write articles about for 100 years. In hindsight, we might call these realignment elections,” Fagan explained.
The results brought historic firsts to the Midwest, including in Illinois, which will be the first state represented by two women of color in the U.S. Senate. Nationally, Fagan thinks the mobilization of Latino voters is going to be something political science professors will study for a very long time.
Neighboring Wisconsin is among six states where transgender and nonbinary candidates achieved milestones this year, winning legislative seats in states which had never before elected an openly transgender lawmaker. Nationally, Fagan said the eye-opening results reflect a generational change within the Democratic Party, as younger candidates and voters take on a larger role.
A new analysis from Future Caucus finds millennials and Gen Z made up more than a third of congressional candidates this year. At least 97 of them won or were reelected.
“The millennial generation, I think, is going to come to define politics both as voters and as politicians for the Democratic Party,” Fagan observed.
Fagan cautioned it will take time to know whether what happened this year represents a lasting realignment. The next test, he said, will come as potential presidential candidates begin positioning themselves for the 2028 election.
“The 2028 campaign starts now. The rush to define this election, you’re going to see your 2028 candidates maybe not formally announce that they’re running literally this week but in the next month or two, they are going to start doing things like forming exploratory committees and they’re going to go on the media and try to claim credit,” Fagan noted.
